The south of the North. (Campaign Log)

[Eisen]

I finally got my friends together for ASIFRP and thought I'd post their exploits. Comments, sugestions, questions, advice, and snarky remarks are always welcome! I'll start with an outline of the player house and their characters.

House Milo, located on Cape Kraken the house holds the far southern boundry of The North. The house fortune rolls went very well. They rolled up an Anicent house with mostly favorable events. This resulted in them having an amazing lands value, along with good infuence and power. Wealth was the lowest stat at 25. For holdings the players invested in: A Hall (Ironwood Keep), Marketplace, Port, and Godswood. They have three domains with the most notable feature being a coastal large town (Redport) The house arms are a white sabertooth tiger head on gold. With such good stats House Milo is the big dawg in the area. The closest house that could smack them down would be their trusty allies the Frey's over in the Twins.

Lord: Benjin Milo (NPC) A harsh but just Lord known for his shaggy black beard. Fought beside Eddard Stark in Robbert's and the Greyjoy Rebellions.

Symon Milo: Firstborn son and heir. Symon is the perfect son. Attractive, charasmatic, and friendly. He prefers to settle situations with his charm, but he is also a skilled bowman should that fail. He is clearly his father's favorite, a fact made clear when he was given the family's ancestoral Valaryan Steel sword 'LongFang'

Gavin Milo: Secondborn son. Gavin is the less then perfect son. Ever since he killed his mother durring childbirth he never recieved the favor so easily heaped on his older brother. He was fostered to the Green Apple Fossaway's at a young age and earned a vicious scar across his face (marked) in a skirmish with Dornishmen. He's the more combative of the brothers and uses his companionship with a runt sabertooth tiger (backstory to be worked out, but will certianlly involve a trip north of the wall) to enhance his combat skills. He is skilled with sword and sheild, but also has been known to employ a halberd to humble southron knights.

Krugan: Master-at-Arms. A grizzled old campaigner, (middle aged, but slightly older then the lord) Krugan tries to temper his rage with the skill of experience. Trained in many weapons, he favors his massive battle axe in combat. He has a very low tolerance for incompentence and as a result all the Milo soilders are at least 'trained' rank or higher.

[Carriker]

Sounds like fun, Eisen!

I love campaign logs, Actual Plays and that sort of thing. Thanks for sharing with us; looking forward to seeing where this goes.

[Eisen]

For the opener I decided on a short little introduction adventure to ease everyone into things and get them (and me) used to the rules. Sadly Krugan couldn't join us but we hope to have him back next week. This one likely won't be an exciting read but buisness should pick up in the next few sessions.

Things started off in the training yard with the Master-at-Arms berating the garison troops for some minor failing or another. He decides to let them witness a real test of skill by piting the two young lordlings, Symon and Gavin, against each other in a practice bout. Symon was quicker, scoring the first hit..with no effect on Gavin and his chainmail. Symon's leather amor was not proof against three degrees of sucess and the favored son of house Milo was downed with one hit!

Gavin wasn't one to gloat and after chatting breifly with kindly old Steward Harl, and the stable master Kellen Snow, the two brothers rode off for Redport to pick up some provisions for Symon's upcomming 20th nameday celebration. They were met at the town gate's by a sleeping guard! This enraged Gavin but before he could do anything about it a hysterical barmaid runs up and claims there are a group of Ironborn raiders wrecking up a local tavern. A quick investigation of the area finds a noticible lack of guards. They enter the tavern and find a complete mess, broken tables, glass, and chairs everwhere. The normal patrons have fled but there are about a dozen or so Ironborn passed out in the mess, and three more still drinking and (badly) singing a bawdy song. The Milo's aproach and opt to talk things out (I was shocked!) rather then start a fight. After a few minutes of talking I decided this would be a good chance to test out the intrigue rules. The Milo brothers went in with the goal of convincing the Ironborn to leave quietly, and the drunken sods were trying to intimidate them into leaving. The intrigue was quick (low composure on drunken Ironborn npc's ) and ended when Gavin offered to deliver a keg of wine to their ship. They discovered the Ironborn traders were taking out their frustrations after being 'reduced' to trading after the Greyjoy Uprising put a stop to their raiding. Gavin was somewhat sympathetic and the situation was resolved peacefully. Symon offered to pay for the damages. Before leaving Gavin made a point to drag the sleeping guard along with them.

On the way back to Ironwood keep with their party suplies, our hero's were stoped by a hedge knight by the name of Ser Clinton. The knight was about to offer them protection (in exchange for payment) when he reconized Gavin Milo. (Due to his Marked drawback) He offered them his services as a sworn sword. After a few question about the knight's backround the brother's suprisingly accept his offer! Ser Clinton calls out his squire, who was hiding in some bushes with a longbow...and they return to the keep.

Back home Gavin tells Lord Milo about the sleeping guard. Benjin Milo has little tolerenace for such antics and promptly calls for a block and his sword. He passes sentence and the guard is swiftly beheaded much to the dismay of both brothers, providing them with a hard lesson about northern justice.


Not a bad first session all told. I was quite surpised that the pair managed to avoid any combat, but such a course might prove useful to them as events unfold. It's possible the lack of a house Maester factored into their decisions Next up..Symon's Nameday celebration! Intrigue and trechery for all!!

[Pappystein]

I am Pappystein and I play the character Gavin in this campaign.

I would add a few things to our first session.
1) Gavin Wears Coin mail. Eisen, our GM likes to confuse it for measly chain mail. But somee of the Coins on my armor are real coins I picked up in my travels.
2) My game Elder brother Symon, is actually better at the Bow than I am. How ever I am much deadlier with the Longsword and Shield.
3) Father has little respect for me. I never had a chance to earn his respect. I killed the one true love of his life when I came into this world after all.... I work very hard to avoid Father in situations that could be, well, off putting to him to have to address me. But by flip side I spend a lot of time makeing sure things run right for Father and my brother Symon.
4) my emotional outlook can best be described as a tougher than Nails exterior. However for those who have proven their worth to me however I am kind, caring and compassionate. Had father given me time to speak before he slew the town guard for dereliction of duty, I would have questioned the Town guard as to WHY he was asleep on Duty. Mind you even if the Guard provided the BEST possible answers he was going to be punished and severely. However he might not have died.


I plan on taking over command of the Town Guard and our Infantry and Garrison forces. Father is best with the Calvary and Symon is better with the archers (but not by much.) This plan Includes me setting up several people as Lieutenant Commanders for each of these forces I will command. Ser Clinton is to be the first candidate. He will be placed in charge of the malingering City Guard as a paid Knight (low end of the scale.) It is better than the Hedge Knight status and pay obviously. If he does well with the City Guard and makes positive impression on me, my ilk and Krugan, he may move on to either the Garrison force or the Infantry. If not then Father might be wanting to take another head at the chopping block.

I am still working up some worth-while stats to my Saber-tooth Runt. Her Name is Fang but the Current in-game Shadow-cat stats are a little too far off. I know the Bite attack is going to end up at at least Penetrating 1. But I am not certain how I am going to balance it out yet. If anyone wants to post suggestions, that would be great.

My Backstory for the Saber-toothed Tiger ties into my main backstory but THAT was hand written and in the possession of our glorious GM Eisen ATM… Hence I have been un-able to complete it (I will post my entire Back Story to this forum soon.)

[Paedrig]

Is behading a sleeping guard not a little bit too harsh? I mean, whe have peace after all - and this is not the roman army.
I would have thought a little whipping or so would be enough. But after all if the lord is such a type...

Hmm...a sabertooth as company certainly get you into any conversation - even in the north.

By the way i would not think that the stats of the shadow cat (even with piercing one - you can take away the stealth bonus therefore) are so much unbalanced. After all the Stark children gets dire wolves - and these are certainly more deadly than a shaow cat, i would think...

[Pappystein]

I think, as one of the PCs, this act was done to solidify us into the world. I for one have never read any of the books and have only seen the 1st eppisode of the TV show. Most of my Mythos knowledge is from the card game and reading all the cards I play with.

That being said, take a sleeping guard, with the fact that NONE of the rest of the guard force was in town like they are supposed to be and this Guard can be seen as an example to the rest. A "Do your job or die like the coward you are," sorta thing.


As I said my character would have been SLIGHTLY more forgiving had he been given the chance to extract punishment but as I did not know how dad would react out of or even in chracater this was the route that happened.

[Cataphract]

Ugh... coin mail. Why, oh why, dear GR, did you have to perpetuate all the annoying fallacies? WHY?

[Eisen]

lol, why the coin mail hate? I would think it'd look pretty cool, even if most of the 'coins' are made of steel rather then gold or silver.

[Pappystein]

Ugh... coin mail. Why, oh why, dear GR, did you have to perpetuate all the annoying fallacies? WHY?

Why indeed. Of all the known Coin mails in the world, most have been since debunked as forgeries and the few that remain are cerimonial armors and never were worn in combat. Lets face it, in game stats for Coin mail are WAY wrong. The closest in game armor time to Coin Mail is really Splint Mail. That being said, it is in the rules and I am using it.

If you want to talk about broken rules. Why isn't there rules for Half plate being properly fitted in this system (or any other for that matter?) After all Full Plate is for Horse bound combat not foot combat. Half Plate was created so a Knight could work well on the ground, not because he was lacking funds like EVERY GAME system seems to portray. One of my Character's goals is to have a well fitted suit of Castle forged Half Plate armor for ground combat. I will be talking with my GM today about the eventual purchase of a convertable set of Full/Half Plate armor for my Character that I can buy Piecemeal. In one of Green Ronin's DnD suplments they had such an armor available.

[Cataphract]

Ugh... coin mail. Why, oh why, dear GR, did you have to perpetuate all the annoying fallacies? WHY?

Why indeed. Of all the known Coin mails in the world, most have been since debunked as forgeries and the few that remain are cerimonial armors and never were worn in combat. Lets face it, in game stats for Coin mail are WAY wrong. The closest in game armor time to Coin Mail is really Splint Mail. That being said, it is in the rules and I am using it.

If you want to talk about broken rules. Why isn't there rules for Half plate being properly fitted in this system (or any other for that matter?) After all Full Plate is for Horse bound combat not foot combat. Half Plate was created so a Knight could work well on the ground, not because he was lacking funds like EVERY GAME system seems to portray. One of my Character's goals is to have a well fitted suit of Castle forged Half Plate armor for ground combat. I will be talking with my GM today about the eventual purchase of a convertable set of Full/Half Plate armor for my Character that I can buy Piecemeal. In one of Green Ronin's DnD suplments they had such an armor available.

Well, I've made a few house rules for armors, might want to take a look: viewtopic.php?f=29&t=10202

@Eisen: Because coin mail was not a historical armor. If there are such suits of armor, they're mostly oriental, and mostly ceremonial and thus, as worthless as nipples on a breastplate. It has absolutely no historical medieval (most of Westeros), rennaissance (Free cities) OR greek/arabian (dornish) vibe or feeling, and it's totally out of place.

[Pappystein]

Version one of my Saber-Toothed Cat.

Saber-Toothed Cat (V1.1)
Agility 4 Balance 2B, Dodge 1B, Quickness 2B
Athletics 4 Climb 1B, Jump 2B, Run 2B, Strength 2B,
Swim 1B
Awareness 5 Notice 2B
Cunning 1
Endurance 4 Stamina 2B
Fighting 4 Bite 1B
Stealth 4
Survival 4 Hunt 2B, Track 1B
Comb at Defense 13 ❂ Armor Rating 0 ❂ Armor Penalty 0
Health 12 ❂ Movement 8 yards
Bite 4D 4 damage Vicious
Claws 4D 6 damage Powerful (figured in)
Leaping Charge When a Saber-Toothed Cat charges, it may make two
attacks, one with its claws and another with its bite.
Sharpened Saber Bite: Impale; Piercing 1. Natural weapon and may not be disarmed. May only be used on the Charge.
Failure of Impale roll leaves Saber-Toothed Cat unable to act the next turn (the target is still impaled however.) A successful Impale roll allows the Saber-toothed Cat to Shake it’s opponent for Strength Damage at the end of the round. Armor may not absorb this Strength Damage during the Shake Attack. A Shake attack automatically dis-engages the target from the Saber-Toothed Cat immediately upon the start of the round. Any target with a Strength GREATER than the Saber-Toothed Cat ignores Strength Damage from the Shake Attack.



In RW History the Smilodon (oft called the Saber-Toothed Tiger) was about the size of a modern Day Panther, except wider. Given the game stats and description of the Shadowcat, and Using the Shadowcat's statisctics a basis, I created my own version of the Smilodon. Because it is not the size of a Tiger as the common name would suggest and because as of yet there are no Tigers that I have seen refrences to, I call it the Saber-Toothed Cat.

Let me know what you think.

[Eisen]

The next session is set for tomorrow but in the interim I thought I'd post a bit about the main NPC houses that will play big roles in the upcomming adventures.

House Flint
A stalwart northern ally. The Flint's seat is Flint's Finger, located to the north of the player's lands on Cape Kraken. We've heard a bit about the other branches of the family in the books, Flints of Widow's Watch, and apparently a clan of Flints in the northern hills? But curiously nothing (unless I'm forgeting something from books 1 or 2) about this (main?) branch of Flints. Ronnel Flint is the lord, stern, black hair and built like a barrel. (The Campagin guide does name a Robin Flint as lord but by the time I got that far I had already rolled up House Robin ) He has a son and two daughters. Markus is of age with the Milo boys and has been a childhood friend with the Milos. Mostly Symon due to Gavin's fosterage but he's still a good friend who loves to spend his time hunting. Jeyne and Jane Flint are identical twins. Plain looking and quiet, they are also of age with the Milos. House Flint boasts a strong castle, an artisan smith, a Maester, small town, and godswood. Their fortunes have declined in the recent rebellions, leading to reduced Law and power. Perhaps a marriage allience with House Milo would help solve some of these issues.

House Bryce
Trading partners from the Westerlands. Sworn to house Lanister, the Bryces are located on the northern coast of the Westerlands. Now that the Greyjoy threat has been put down trade opportunities with the North have oppened up, and the Bryce family is in a good geographic position to take advantage. Though there is a historic mistrust between Lanister and Stark, trade with House Bryce provides House Milo with some much needed wealth.
Lord Martin Bryce is a fair lord but by all accounts he is more concerned with counting dragons then combat. Ser Kerrian Bryce is the heir, a valiant knight with a charming smile. His brother Jermey Brice is less well regarded and shows little aptitude with arms. Lord Martin has one daughter, the lovely Leanne Bryce. House Bryce is rich and powerful, their only flaw being a below average population. They have a keep, marketplace, small town, port, and a silver mine.

The Freys of Northwatch
An offshoot house of landed knights sworn to Lord Walder Frey and the Riverlands. I took a few liberties here, rolling up the house before reading Dance of Dragons (What are the odds that Mr. Martin and I would pick the same Frey to use?!?!) The house is headed up by Sir Hosteen Frey, Walder's 6th son. His lady wife Bellena Frey has only born him one son, Ser Arwood Frey. However Ser Arwood is also married and has three children of his own. Therefore there will be no shortage of Freys in our little corner of Westeros The Freys (through their leige lords the Tullys) are allies of The North and Ser Hosteen proved his worth in battles against the nearby Ironborn. The house controls Northwatch Keep, a small town, port, marketplace, and a Maester. They have little influence in the area but are always looking to expand.

House Robin
Also a Riverland ally, House Robin is a small but proud family. Lord John Robin is know mostly for his devotion to the Faith. His wife Lady Siri and son Ser Merrick try to live up to their lord's example, but John sets a very high bar. The house holdings are meager, only consisting of a tower, small town, Maester, and a Sept.

[pouncingpanda]

I'm enjoying this campaign log.

We've heard a bit about the other branches of the family in the books, Flints of Widow's Watch, and apparently a clan of Flints in the northern hills?

I get really confused about all the branches of House Flint too, especially after Dance with Dragons! Mind you, DwD portaryed them as pretty badass, so they should be fun allies.

It's interesting to see a campaign where the House gets favourable stats and is thus able to act as a big player. I've rolled up a few experimental houses to test the system and they almost always seem to end up as very minor houses with one big schtick - like the Mormonts with a gold mine or the Seaworths with a massive castle.

[Eisen]

We're starting about a year before the events of Game of Thrones, but once it hits the fan you can bet House Milo will be right in the thick of things. Weather or not anyone manages to survive is another question...

Also some of my players are slackers and haven't read the books so if we could avoid spoilers I'd be greatful

[pouncingpanda]

We're starting about a year before the events of Game of Thrones, but once it hits the fan you can bet House Milo will be right in the thick of things. Weather or not anyone manages to survive is another question...

Also some of my players are slackers and haven't read the books so if we could avoid spoilers I'd be greatful

Sorry, I've taken the offending spoiler out!

Which brings me to ask; the SoiaF mythos is MASSIVE, so much so that I've written the RPG off as only suitable for hardcore fans. But in this campaign, at least some of the players aren't familiar with it.

How have you (or other people reading this post) introduced people to the setting? The series is mentioned in this forum and one player has even played the CCG (which I haven't!). I'd recommend the Dunk & Egg comics but they occur quite a while before Game of Thrones.

Have people found any other methods other than getting their friends to read huge novels?

[Carriker]

In my own home game, "To Find a Way, or Make One" (which is the motto of the PC House), I've got one player who has read the whole series, one who has only seen the Game of Thrones HBO show, and another who had only seen the show but has now started reading the series. I don't honestly find it necessary for my players to read the books, personally. I like for them to have at least seen the series, so they get an idea of what the setting is like, to some degree.

Eisen, you mentioned the possibility of running into the events of Game of Thrones in your game. How common is this? Is that what other folks usually do? I warned my players that, depending on what happens in this game, there were no guarantees of the events in the books even necessarily happening in my game - I may just decide to do something else entirely with the setting.

Thanks again for sharing your game with us.

[Roadspike]

I actually love the idea that players may not have read the books (or more than the first one), because that means they won't know who to trust, or the motivations of the various characters. This is especially important in a game based in King's Landing, but also important elsewhere. As our esteemed line developer has stated, however, there's nothing saying that all will remain the same as the books, which should throw those folks who know a little bit too much for a loop.

[Pappystein]

Eisen, you mentioned the possibility of running into the events of Game of Thrones in your game. How common is this? Is that what other folks usually do? I warned my players that, depending on what happens in this game, there were no guarantees of the events in the books even necessarily happening in my game - I may just decide to do something else entirely with the setting.

Thanks again for sharing your game with us.

As the Common sense/Physics Lawyer/House Rule creator for our South of the North Campaign, I can tell you there are several reasons Eisen rightfully feels we can fit in with the cannon books/show.

Simply put however, It is easy to stay within a given Mythos. Provide the GM uses ALL the tools available to them. Most in-experienced GMs fear the use of the BEST pair of tools to keep the party on Cannon.

1) PC Manipulation
2) Mr Plot Stick.

Judicious use of those two tools will keep a campaign on track to remain within Cannon. OVER or HEAVY HANDED use of those two tools will De-rail a campaign at the drop of a hat.

That being said, there are very few people who don't try to stick to cannon in my experience. Most of the GMs fail miserably in attempting to do so but that does not mean it wasn't their goal.
Hope that is helpful

[pouncingpanda]

I warned my players that, depending on what happens in this game, there were no guarantees of the events in the books even necessarily happening in my game - I may just decide to do something else entirely with the setting.

I agree that it's good to be unpredictable and to let players who are very familiar with the story know that your game won't neccessarily turn out like the books. I say something similar to players before running any RPG based on a franchise (e.g. my Mutants & Masterminds X-Men game).

What I really like about the SIFRPG is that the rules help GMs capture the feel of the books even if they don't follow the events. The Narrator chapter in the rulebook has a particularly good section on this.

[DaimosofRedstone]

Eisen, you mentioned the possibility of running into the events of Game of Thrones in your game. How common is this? Is that what other folks usually do? I warned my players that, depending on what happens in this game, there were no guarantees of the events in the books even necessarily happening in my game - I may just decide to do something else entirely with the setting.

Thanks again for sharing your game with us.

As the Common sense/Physics Lawyer/House Rule creator for our South of the North Campaign, I can tell you there are several reasons Eisen rightfully feels we can fit in with the cannon books/show.

Simply put however, It is easy to stay within a given Mythos. Provide the GM uses ALL the tools available to them. Most in-experienced GMs fear the use of the BEST pair of tools to keep the party on Cannon.

1) PC Manipulation
2) Mr Plot Stick.

Judicious use of those two tools will keep a campaign on track to remain within Cannon. OVER or HEAVY HANDED use of those two tools will De-rail a campaign at the drop of a hat.

That being said, there are very few people who don't try to stick to cannon in my experience. Most of the GMs fail miserably in attempting to do so but that does not mean it wasn't their goal.
Hope that is helpful

I strongly disagree.
If those two 'best' tools (*barf*) are used, they should only be used to uphold a consensus within the group. 'Canon for canon's sake is an empty phrase' to paraphrase. I really do not want to beat 'lets just have fun'-horse, because the poor animal has been sourly mistreated in most all fori i know, but it is not, i repeat, not the GMs task to pilot the group to some forgone conclusion. Why play if i can just let the GM tell me how it will turn out (and i also lack the total disinterest necessary to blunder into the Red Wedding when i know whats gonna happen)?
If the group decides they want to 'reach canon' at some point (the latest possible point for any westerosi house seems to be the start of the War of the Five Kings) then all is good and fine and you do not need the 'tools' because the group will proactively steer towards these events.
And if the group does not want to reach canon, well Westeros is a big and dangerous and exciting land even in peace.
Though i do not get why somebody, anybody, would want to miss a war like that of the Five Kings (Apart from the fact that every Storyteller worth his salt will properly reach its end before Mr Martin).

[Paedrig]

I understand the problem but i do not think that most times there is a problem.

After all the characters did not know what the players know. I know this could not allways be sepperated (some resentments or faibles might shining through ) but beside this most players that i know will not try to force the story into another way based on their book-knowing.

And after all a 'normal' player house is still a minor house - and therefore their opportunity to intervent into the 'grand story' is limited, simply because they do not have the means (and again the knowledge).

And if you did not want to change the storyline of the books, there are still opportunities for small victories . If you realy went to the Red Weddinng it might be little bit to much to prevent this tragical event - but perhaps the characters can rescue some npc's they are fond of? (and of course rescue their own live )

There are enough means to 'hold the line' without a real railroading (which can be very frustrating for a player i must confess - as a player and also, to my shame, as a game master).

[DaimosofRedstone]

That is not my point.
If the players are on board, railroad away.
But i think a GM forcing his players in one direction to follow the 'original' story which might no longer be the better story (because the new story the group is creating is more dear and near to the chracters and the players) is not just making a grievious, grievious mistake but is cheating his/her players.

[Eisen]

Ok guys, let's try to get back on topic please. I'll say a few things about my thoughts on GM style if you like but lets not let the thread get railroaded. And please no spoilers here. My players don't need to know when and where their impending doom is coming from

[Roadspike]

When roleplaying with a universe with an existing storyline, I find it best for the GM to keep in mind the motivations and goals of canon characters, but not stress out about maintaining the same exact events. For instance, Cersei wants catspaws in King's Landing... if the PCs have previously beat up the Kettlebacks, might she not try to recruit the PCs (trying not to be too spoilerish with more blatant examples)?

Making sure that the major events of the books happen no matter what the PCs do will be incredibly unsatisfying for the PCs... they'll basically be scenery behind the books with no ability to influence the story, and that's no fun. Martin's already written the series (so far) better than any of us could.

Of course... if the PCs go ahead and try to derail a major plot point when they have no In-Character way to know that it's coming, that's when the GM should get out the Clue By Four of Metagaming and whack the PCs.

Edit: Sorry, was writing this as the request to get back on topic went up. My apologies. I'll start up another topic.

[Eisen]

In my own home game, "To Find a Way, or Make One" (which is the motto of the PC House), I've got one player who has read the whole series, one who has only seen the Game of Thrones HBO show, and another who had only seen the show but has now started reading the series. I don't honestly find it necessary for my players to read the books, personally. I like for them to have at least seen the series, so they get an idea of what the setting is like, to some degree.

Eisen, you mentioned the possibility of running into the events of Game of Thrones in your game. How common is this? Is that what other folks usually do? I warned my players that, depending on what happens in this game, there were no guarantees of the events in the books even necessarily happening in my game - I may just decide to do something else entirely with the setting.

Thanks again for sharing your game with us.

I run things much the same way that it sounds like you do Carriker. I've got three players, one has seen the HBO series and the other two have only watched one episode. I don't think it's essential for them to know everything about the books but it would help if they knew more about the awesomness of the setting. As to your question I'm not sure how common it is as this is my first time GMing A Song of Ice and Fire. I would imagine it's similar to other RPG's set in established properties.

There was a question about how to get others into the setting. Our group started with the cardgame and went from there. I have found bribery works wonders in RPG's and have offered my players extra xp for reading each book

Roadspike, Peadrig, and pouncingpanda have the right idea. For the most part the main events in the book will happen unless the actions of the characters do something to change or undermine them. Sometimes the event will have nothing to do with the players so it won't matter. Perhaps things unfold differently depending on the players actions. And perhaps I as GM change the event if I catch players acting on out of character knowledge. I try very hard not to use the plotstick and keep things as fluid as possible. That is one of the things I love about A Song of Ice and Fire, there is always more then one way to solve a problem, be it combat, intrigue, ect.